In a recent hypothetical exercise, NASA has uncovered a startling revelation: there is a 72% chance that a potentially hazardous asteroid could impact Earth, and our current preparedness measures may not be sufficient to prevent it. This finding emerged from the fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, held in April and summarized on June 20 at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland.
The exercise involved nearly 100 representatives from various US government agencies and international collaborators, all working together to evaluate Earth’s ability to respond to a potential asteroid threat. Although there are no immediate significant asteroid threats, the exercise aimed to assess our readiness for such an event.
Lindley Johnson, NASA’s planetary defense officer emeritus, emphasized the importance of these exercises: “A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent.”
During the exercise, participants considered a scenario where a newly detected asteroid had a 72% chance of hitting Earth on July 12, 2038, giving approximately 14 years of warning. This scenario provided valuable insights into the risks, response options, and collaboration opportunities necessary for such a threat.
The summary of the exercise highlighted several key gaps in Earth’s preparedness:
- Decision-making processes and risk tolerance are not well understood.
- Limited readiness to quickly implement necessary space missions.
- Need for timely global coordination of messaging.
- Lack of defined asteroid-impact disaster management plans.
Notably, this exercise was the first to incorporate data from NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission. DART has confirmed that a kinetic impactor could alter an asteroid’s trajectory, providing a viable method for planetary defense.
To further enhance our preparedness, NASA is developing the NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope set to launch in June 2028. This telescope aims to expedite the discovery of potentially hazardous near-Earth objects, allowing for timely evaluation and response.
This exercise underscores the importance of continued investment in planetary defense initiatives to ensure that Earth is equipped to handle potential asteroid threats in the future.
4o
Nithin Rosh 
Nisham Ismail